British motorists could be paying close to 150p per litre for petrol within weeks if oil prices continue to rise in the wake of the escalating Middle East conflict, fuel analysts warned on Monday. The prospect represents a painful blow for drivers already managing tight household budgets, and comes just as some relief from high petrol prices had appeared to be within reach.
Petrol prices had already been creeping higher in recent weeks, with the average cost rising approximately one penny per litre in February. A further increase of similar magnitude was already anticipated for the near term, which would push average prices to around 134p per litre. However, the dramatic events in the Middle East — which sent oil prices surging to 14-month highs — have radically changed that outlook.
Fuel analysts laid out a clear trajectory based on different oil price scenarios. If Brent crude stabilizes at $80 a barrel, average petrol prices could rise to around 136p per litre. At $90 a barrel, prices would reach approximately 140p. At $100 a barrel — a level that some analysts consider a realistic possibility if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed — drivers could be looking at an average of close to 150p per litre. These levels would represent some of the highest sustained petrol prices seen in the United Kingdom.
The oil price surge is driven by a combination of supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil passes, faces effective closure. Qatar’s LNG production has been halted. Shipping companies have suspended transits through the Strait of Hormuz and the Suez Canal. Iran, which produces approximately 4.5% of global oil, faces direct disruption to its exports. The combination of these factors has removed a significant volume of supply from an already tight global oil market.
For motorists, the prospect of substantially higher petrol prices adds to a series of financial pressures on household budgets. Combined with the potential for higher domestic gas and electricity bills if the LNG supply disruption persists, families face the possibility of a meaningful squeeze on their disposable income. The timing is particularly difficult, coming after a period in which energy costs had appeared to be stabilising following the turbulence of previous years.
UK Petrol Prices Heading for 150p a Litre as Oil Surges
